Vers une Grande-Bretagne fédérale ?
A propos de : Constitutional Future, edited by Robert Hazell, Oxford University Press, february 1999.

DEVOLUTION: Britain stretched to the limit (en anglais)

In 1999, Britain begins a radical experiment in devolving power to the nations that make up the United Kingdom. Brian Groom and Andrew Parker ask where it will all end; "I suspect the trouble may be terminal. Britishness has passed from being one of the soundest properties on the international ideas-mart (liberal, trustworthy, decent, first among equals, Mother of this-and-that, progressive haven etc) to being a downmarket left-over - not quite a slum, but heading in that direction." Thus Tom Nairn, Scotland's leading nationalist intellectual, put his case bluntly to the Commons Scottish affairs committee. The government's crash programme of constitutional reform, he suggested, had come too late to save the crumbling United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Mr Nairn predicted the UK would rapidly become "an archipelago-system of effectively independent polities, meeting regularly to discuss or decide issues of common interest". Scotland would achieve de facto independence after 2000, he predicted, and de jure independence by 2010.
Other crystal ball-gazers dispute his vision, or at least his timetable, but few doubt the momentous nature of the changes about to be unleashed. Even if devolution, as the process is known in the UK, does not tear the union apart, it will transform the country irreversibly.
There is no turning back. For better or worse, 1999 is the year in which devolution moves from the drawing board to reality. On May 6, elections will be held for a devolved Scottish parliament and a Welsh assembly. A Northern Ireland assembly is already being created. From April 1, eight English regions will have development agencies, overseen by regional chambers of councillors and business people. Next year London will have a directly elected mayor and regional authority.
Tony Blair, UK prime minister, claims his government's constitutional plans are "the biggest programme of change to democracy ever proposed". Timid on other matters, he leads a radical, reforming government on this. Eleven constitutional bills were passed in the first parliamentary session, including incorporation of the European Convention on Human Rights into UK law. Still on the agenda are the reform of the House of Lords, the unelected upper chamber of parliament, freedom of information, and the national electoral system.

The reforms aim to bring government closer to the people. The result may appear lop-sided - tax-raising powers for Scotland, law-making powers for Scotland and Northern Ireland, only secondary legislative powers for Wales, and very little for England - but ministers say they are responding to the varying demands of different regions. The stakes could hardly be higher. Because he has invested so much personal capital in Labour's devolution plans, the Scottish elections will be the stiffest test yet for Mr Blair and his 20-month-old government. If Labour loses Scotland to the Scottish National party - which wants to hold a referendum on independence - it would cast a deep pall over achievements in other fields.
The forthcoming elections underline how difficult it has proved to hold the nations of the UK together since the demise of the global empire that once gave them common purpose.

Mr Nairn is not the only expert trying to imagine how a devolved Britain might look. In a book to be published next month, 12 of Britain's leading academics, grouped around the Constitution Unit at University College London, make an attempt to read the future, based on the experience of other countries. While recognising the far-reaching nature of the reforms, they see shortcomings. "Each initiative has been planned with little obvious regard to the other elements in the devolution package, and with no sense of the package as a coherent whole," they say. Robert Hazell, the unit's director and the main author, adds: "Despite the devolution programme much of the government's language is centralising in tone, and in major parts of the constitutional reform programme distinctly ambivalent." Nonetheless, the changes "will release powerful dynamic forces that will be beyond the government's control". Turn the clock forward 10 years, and the UK could be a different place.

Picture a future in which all the assemblies have enhanced their authority. The Scottish parliament, independent or not, has used its tax powers. The Northern Ireland assembly has the right to tax and the Welsh assembly has been transformed into a parliament with rights to legislate and tax. England has strong elected mayors in its big cities and elected assemblies in several regions. The Lords has become a largely elected body representing the nations, regions and cities. The Commons, or lower house of parliament, is elected by proportional representation. A Bill of Rights has been passed with a Freedom of Information Act, and a Supreme Court created.
That is the "maximal" scenario. There is a "minimal" one as well, but even under this, Mr Hazell argues, "the cumulative impact will be profound, because the constitutional reforms will unleash a political and legal dynamic that the government will not be able to rein back". Devolution is a process, Mr Hazell says, not an event. There can be no fixed "settlement". Each part will affect the others. "There is likely to be a process of leapfrog whereby the slower English regions seek to catch up with those that have established regional assemblies; and Wales seeks to emulate Scotland. This may lead the Scots to press for further devolution to stay one step ahead," the book says.

Political parties will be deeply affected. Even without proportional representation for Westminster, devolution is likely to fragment national parties and spawn new regional ones.

It will be difficult for the prime minister to impose his will, despite the choice of Blairite Labour candidates in Scotland and Wales. "To compete against the SNP electorally the Scottish Labour party will have to emphasise its Scottishness and distance itself sharply from the British Labour party," the book says.
Judges will be drawn into political disputes about the validity of Scottish or Northern Irish legislation. Devolution will mean big changes for Whitehall, which is likely to face pressure for the Scottish parliament and Welsh assembly to have their own civil service, as in Northern Ireland.
The most controversial impact will be on Westminster. "Europe and devolution will weaken it, as parliamentary sovereignty is squeezed from above and below," the book says.
The executive's dominance may be reduced by devolution, the human rights convention, freedom of information, the onward march of the European Union, parliamentary reform and electoral reform. Mr Hazell comments: "To those outside it will seem like a long overdue taming of the
leviathan."

There will be tensions. The biggest is likely to be over finance, with English regions becoming increasingly restive over the higher public spending enjoyed by the other nations. "The time will come when the government is forced to concede a fresh needs assessment," the authors say.

The greatest uncertainty is over English devolution. The government has blown hot and cold over elected regional assemblies - recent comments suggest they are firmly on the agenda for a second term, but some see this as conflicting with proposals for elected mayors in the cities. The book says: "There may not be room for two political leaders claiming to be the voice of the region. Which model wins through may depend on who occupies the political space first. At present the elected mayors look likely to get there first."

Devolution is already causing headaches for Labour. The SNP is at its heels in Scotland, helped by allegations of Labour sleaze and poor organisation. In Wales, where Labour had seemed assured of a working majority, things are less certain after Ron Davies resigned under a cloud as Welsh secretary. The attempt by Alun Michael, his successor, to become Labour's candidate for first secretary is handicapped by the perception that he is Downing Street's man - an early indication of the difficulties national parties are likely to experience with increasing frequency.

But the game has scarcely begun. Vernon Bogdanor, professor of government at Oxford University and a devolution supporter, remains optimistic. Separatist pressure would be stronger if Scotland had been denied its parliament, he says, adding that people respond positively to having the chance to run their own public services.
The government must, though, find ways to bind the UK together. Lords reform may offer an opportunity to include representatives from the devolved institutions. Also, a joint ministerial committee will be a crucial liaison point between Edinburgh, Cardiff, Belfast and Whitehall.
"To come to terms with the new political culture the centre will have to relax and be willing to let go," Mr Hazell wrote. "It will have to treat the devolved governments as equal partners, not subordinates."

Britishness, however, remains a fragile concept. Created by the political union of England, Wales and Scotland in 1707, and expanded to include Ireland in 1801, full union lasted only until southern Ireland defected in 1922. Any further cracks in the edifice could prove fatal.